10 Cities where Inventory is Skyrocketing
One of the best way to understand which Housing Markets will experience price declines is by looking at Inventory Data (aka the number of Homes For Sale on the market).
Specifically: how much Inventory has increased over the last year. Many of the cities on this list have been whalloped by a 200% Increase in Inventory. Meaning there are 3x more homes available for sale today compared to one year ago.
These massive increases in inventory are a nightmare for sellers. Because now suddenly they have a lot more competition. The 10 Cities on this list will likely be the ones where prices decline the most in 2023. If you're a homebuyer or investor, pay attention to these areas.
Let's get into it.
Data on inventory in this post comes from my Tableau Profile (available to YouTube Channel Members), with the underlying data sourced from Realtor.com's listing database.
10. Seattle, WA (+181%)
There's rumours swirling that Seattle's Housing Market is recovering. But that's hard to see in the data. Inventory on the market in January 2023 measured 3,700, which was up a hefty +181% above last year.
Why did inventory pile up so fast in Seattle? Because it's a huge Bubble Market with terrible affordability. Layer on an increase in Mortgage Rates and an economic downturn in tech and you get the recipe for a Seattle Housing Crash.
Home Prices in Seattle are already down 14% from peak according to the Case Shiller Home Price Index. I expect those price declines to continue in 2023 as the inventory pile-up worsens.
9. Phoenix, AZ (+190%)
You ever heard the expression: "a leopard can't change its spots?"
That truism applies to the volatile Phoenix Housing Market. During every Bubble Phoenix tricks people into thinking "this time is different" and that there won't be a crash.
Well - we are now officially in the beginning stages of another Phoenix Housing Crash. Inventory is up a massive +190% YoY and is now also 10% above the long-term average for January.
What's scary for Phoenix is that even though inventory has surged, and prices have declined (-8% according to Case Shiller), buyers have not come back. Pending Home Sales in January 2023 were down 50% YoY according to Redfin. Yikes.
8. Dallas, TX (+199%)
Dallas is another market where I'm hearing whispers of a "recovery". Maybe even some bidding wars in desirable neighborhoods. Narratives are swirling again about a "hoard of new homebuyers flooding into the metro". But the data says otherwise.
The Dallas-Fort Worth Metro had 14,776 Homes on the Market in January 2023. Which was 3x higher than the 4,936 Homes last January.
That flood of new inventory has been most pronounced in the suburbs to the North and South. Particularly across cities like Frisco, Prosper, Aubrey, Burleson, and Kaufman. Where Inventory is up nearly 500% YoY in some ZIP Codes.
(500% Growth means there are 6 TIMES as many homes on the market today compared to one year ago)
7. Port St. Lucie, FL (+201%)
Hello Southeast Florida. Welcome to the Housing Downturn. After getting invaded by New York transplants over the last 2 years, Port St. Lucie has experienced a big slowdown in buyer demand.
The result is a catapulting of Inventory. Last January there were 866 homes on the market. This January there were 2,604. Meaning a tripling of inventory YoY according to Realtor.com.
Now - inventory levels in Port St. Lucie are still below the long-term average. So there is more work to do. But don't worry. Home Builders are doing that work. 7,400 Permits for Houses, mostly single-family, were pulled over the last 12 Months.
Many of those permits will become completed homes in 2023. Putting even more upward pressure on inventory.
6. Tampa, FL (+209%)
Southwest Florida. Come on down as well. Tampa is up a huge +209% on Inventory from its levels last year. And is now within it's long-term norms for inventory in the winter months.
The result of this inventory pile-up has been an 11% drop in Median List Price over the last six months. Soon prices in Tampa could go negative on a YoY basis. Especially in the areas shaded red on the map below.
These are ZIP Codes where Inventory has increased the most. We're talking 300-400% increases in the Southeast near Riverview. 250-300% increases across Pinellas County.
I've heard reports of a flurry of buyer activity in Tampa the last month. However, Pending Sales are still down over 30% YoY. Once this winter rush of buyers ends, I expect inventory to continue increasing.
5. Raleigh, NC (+255%)
It's amazing how quickly the winds in the Raleigh Housing Market have shifted. One year ago it was non stop chatter about how new Google and Apple headquarters would cause buyers to keep flooding in.
Fast forward to January 2023 and active listings are up +255%. Currently there are 3,243 homes on the market, which is right at the long-run average. And very soon it will be above the long-term average.
Because Raleigh's housing fundamentals are not good. There's tons of home building. There's huge exposure to the tech downturn. And it's way cheaper for would-be buyers to rent than to own.
I suspect we're just in Phase 1 of Raleigh's Housing Downturn. With more inventory surges and price declines to come.
4. Austin, TX (+260%)
Wow. The reversal of fortunes in Austin's Housing Market over the last year is going to go down in the history books.
Like Raleigh, just 12 months ago, everyone was saying that new tech headquarters and inbound migration would support the market forever. And then WHAM. Inventory skyrockets from 1,762 homes to 6,350 homes in just one year (+260%).
More impressively, Austin's January inventory levels are now 34% above the long-term average. Just as Home Sales are at their lowest level in a decade. Indicating more pain (and by pain I mean price declines) is coming for this once vaunted Housing Market.
3. Salt Lake City, UT (+293%)
This ranking also includes nearby Provo and Ogden. And basically the entire state of Utah. Where Inventory on the state level is up an absurd +233% YoY, by far the most in America.
Back to Salt Lake City, specifically. There are currently 1,976 homes on the market. There were only 503 one year ago. Meaning the inventory levels are up 4x.
It seems like this massive glut of inventory is finally attracting some buyers back into the market. Pending Sales in nearby Provo and Ogden are up 80% YoY according to Redfin. However, sellers are also entering the market in droves with new listings way up as well.
Salt Lake City and Utah more broadly will be an interesting market to track in 2023.
2. Nashville, TN (+304%)
Our first 300% handle. Inventory levels in Nashville have skyrocketed in the last 12 months, surging 304% YoY.
Like Dallas, Nashville has a lot of local variation in where inventory is going up the most. Specifically, the south side of the Nashville Metro, stretching from downtown all the way south to Franklin, is littered with ZIP Codes experiencing a +400% increase in inventory.
Meanwhile, the areas to the far North and East (in blue) aren't seeing the same degree of inventory gains.
1. Huntsville, AL (+320%)
Well, well, well. For long-time viewers to my channel, you know that Huntsville is one of my favorite Housing Markets. It's still relatively affordable. It has a high-income population. It has that "could be the next Austin" potential.
But the short-term realities are not so good. Inventory in Huntsville is up an astounding +320% YoY, all the way to 1,527 homes on the market. Which is 30% higher than the levels directly preceding the pandemic.
Lots of homebuilding, combined with a slowdown in inbound migration, is behind this increase. And inventory will likely keep increasing throughout 2023.
Interestingly - prices in Huntsville haven't really declined yet. They're holding strong in spite of the inventory surge. But don't expect that to last.
Some parting words:
We're in a confusing time in the Housing Market right now. The Real Estate mainstream is doing a "full-court press" of positive Housing Market propaganda. Realtors and investors alike are insisting the bottom has come and gone. A moderate uptick in buyers in January resulted in some bidding wars in certain neighborhoods.
As a result, it's never been more important to arm yourself with objective data when considering your home purchase or investment decision. Specifically, ask yourselves the questions:
1) Is Inventory high or low in my market?
2) How many sellers are cutting the price? Will prices go up or down in the next 6 months?
3) How overvalued is my local Housing Market? And how much could prices decline in the long-term?
My mission is to make sure every homebuyer in America can answer these questions on their own. And I've developed two suites of tools to help you do that.
First - joining my YouTube Channel as a Member grants you access to my Tableau Profile, and the graphs contained in this most. To go along with an array of additional graphs and maps updated each month.
Second - the Reventure App. The beta version is now live and available for anyone and everyone to use. All you need to do is create a free account. I plan on keeping Reventure App free for the first several months after launch. But eventually it will convert to a freemium model where certain data points are free, and others will require a paid subscription.
As always - comment below and give me your feedback on what's occurring in your housing market. And also let me know what you think of Reventure App!