Sellers are doing PRICE CUTS in Arizona (30% of Listings)

Realtor.com just released their March 2023 Inventory and Price Cut statistics for the US Housing Market. And in this post we will dive deep into the Price Cut data in particular. States such as Arizona, Nevada, and Florida have the highest shares of sellers cutting the price. An indication that home prices will decline in these states as the 2023 Housing Downturn & Recession progress.

1) 17% of US Home Sellers cut the Price in March.

But before getting into the state and metro-specific data, let's look at the US more broadly. 17.4% of home sellers in the US Housing Market cut the price in March 2023. That figure is a substantial improvement from the 8% Price Cut figures in March 2021/2022 during the pandemic. Which is good news for homebuyers.

However, the number of Price Cuts on the Housing Market has clearly declined from the peak it hit in October 2022 of 28%. A reality that is discouraging some homebuyers as they (correctly) sense that sellers are becoming stingier and have gained back some leverage.

But remember: the Housing Market is seasonal. If you look back at the past seven years of price cut data, a clear trend emerges: sellers cut the price less in the spring since they just listed their house and have more confidence it will sell. But by the late summer/fall, when their house has been sitting for 3-4 months, they become more desperate to cut the price.

17% is a fairly normal price cut share for March. It's neither good or bad. I would have hoped it would be higher. But restrained new listings, leading to lower inventory, is giving sellers more confidence that their house will sell at list price. However, I suspect price cuts will begin increasing again later in April and May like they do every year.

2) Sellers are cutting the price most feverishly in Arizona, Nevada, and Florida.

But as with most things on the US Housing Market - location matters. There is big variation in where sellers are feeling pressure to cut the price right now. Using Reventure App, you can track the states with the highest share of seller price cuts.

The map below shows the continental US states ranked and color-coded by price cuts. What jumps off the page is how states like Arizona, Nevada, and Florida have the most price cuts.

Arizona in particular. 29% of sellers cut the price in March compared to 17% nationally. Nevada came in 2nd at 25%. And then Florida at 22%. These higher level of cuts indicate that home prices will decline in 2023, especially as more inventory hits the market in the spring and summer.

Tennessee is also a state worth paying attention to. Its price cut share is 22%. But what really intrigues me about the seller behavior in Tennessee is the price cut history.

As you can see in the graph above - a 22% Price Cut Share is a record for Tennessee in March (going back to 2016). So sellers in Tennessee are feeling the most desperate they've felt in a while. A signal that home prices will be declining as 2023 progresses.

3) But wait...sellers are only cutting price a little bit. Why does this data even matter?

Now - one important thing to understand about this price cut data from Realtor.com is that it measures if a seller cut the price. It does not measure how much the price was cut.

Take this listing in Nashville, for example. 3BR/3BA, 1,600 SF house on the market for $490k right now after the seller cut the price by 5k. That price cut amounts to a 1% reduction in list price.

A 1% reduction is probably not going to get too many of you excited about buying this house. And thus, some might suggest that this price cut doesn't really matter or move the needle on the direction of the market.

However - if across an entire ZIP Code, County, or Metro, many sellers do this unison, it does matter. Because it signals a shift in seller expectations about the future direction of prices in the market. Buyers see these price cuts, even if they're small at first, and become pickier. Sellers see other sellers cutting the price, and become even more desperate. A reinforcing loop then gets established and all of a sudden small price cuts today equate to broader, substantial price declines 6 to 9 months down the road.

This is exactly what happened in Austin, TX last summer. Price Cuts on the market surged. Many people said it was "no big deal" since the price cuts were small at first. But eventually 60% of sellers in Austin were cutting the price by fall 2022. Fast forward to today and sale prices are now down 20% from peak in Austin.

4) If sellers aren't cutting the price, there won't be a Housing Crash.

You can use Price Cut % to understand what's occurring in "non-crash" Housing Markets as well. Particularly ones across the Northeast and Midwest.

For instance - I was hanging out with a friend from Columbus, OH this weekend. And he was complaining to me about how he just doesn't see the recession and housing crash playing out in Columbus. Specifically, he said that he's looking for a mid-size house in a good school district. And that those houses are just flying off the shelves with multiple offers.

And sure enough - if we use Reventure App to look at price cut trends in Columbus, we see the exact trend he mentioned playing out. The Price Cut % in affluent, good school district ZIP Codes like 43209 in Bexley are very low at 9.8%. Same for other affluent suburbs like Hilliard and Upper Arlington.

Digging in further. If we go into the 43209 and look at the history of price cuts in the ZIP Code, we can see 9.8% is very low. In fact, the lowest level in Realtor.com's data set (prior to the pandemic it was common to see over 20% of the listings in this ZIP Code have a price cut).  

5) Understand what you're getting into as a Homebuyer or Real Estate Investor.

I see a lot of homebuyers banging their head against a wall right now. They hear about the Housing Downturn. And then go to buy a house in their preferred neighborhood. Only to be completely frustrated by the lack of inventory and the presence of bidding wars.

And I understand that frustration. Many of you have been waiting a long-time to buy a house. But it's important to remember we are still in the initial stages of this Housing Crash. And that not all cities and neighborhoods are participating in it yet.

Which is why it's so imperative to use data like Price Cut % to give you objective insight into what's going on in your market. If the share of price cuts is low in general, and low compared to history, you're going to have a tougher time as a buyer.

If the share of price cuts is high, and rising, you're going to have a better time as a buyer. For instance - check out the Price Cut Share for 43205 in Columbus. This is the immediate westward ZIP Code from the one in Bexley we discussed above. And it's a completely different situation.

46% of sellers cut the price in March 2023. That's a record for 43205 in Realtor.com's data set. And it's up 4x from the same time last year. Indicating that this neighborhood has flipped to a buyers market, and that prices will be going down as 2023.

Arming yourself with this data ahead of time as a buyer/investor will save you a lot of frustration and headache. It will anchor your expectations on what to expect. And it might even present you with some new ideas for neighborhoods and cities to buy.

6) Price Cut Share (%) is available on Reventure App for every State, Metro, County, and ZIP Code in America.

Best of all - you can access this data on Price Cut % for free on Reventure App for every State, Metro, County, and ZIP in America. Both in terms of current day price cuts and what it looks like historically. The underlying data comes from Realtor.com's residential listings database.

Do three things to see this data for yourself:

1) Open up the Reventure App website

2) Go to Select Data Point, hit "click to see more"

3) Then select "Price Cut Share (%)"

That allows you to view the Map. You can click any geographic point on the map to see the historical Graph view. Or also go the Graphs Page.

I'm going to issue a challenge to all of you today. Post in the comment section below about what the Price Cut % is in your ZIP Code. And if it's high or low historically. And if it matches your perception of what's going on in your local housing market.

I'm curious to see how the fundamental data is matching up to your experience.

Talk to you again soon.

-Nick