Reventure App's Home Price Forecast

This page explains the benefits of using Reventure App's Price Forecast and goes into detail about how the forecast was developed and how accurate it is in predicting price movements over the next 12 months. We analyze the supply and demand fundamentals in the market and use those fundamentals to project where values are heading in the next 12 months. Inputs include inventory, price cuts, days on market, mortgage rates, and recent trends in home values.
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The output is a forecast that achieved a 72% correlation coefficient in predicting value growth from April 2024 to 2025 in America's largest metros.
This graph compares Reventure's Price Forecast from April 2024 (x-axis) to growth over the next 12 months through April 2025 (y-axis). Reventure's Forecast achieved a 72% correlation coefficient in predicting future price movements across the top 380 metros in the U.S.

Homebuyers and investors have been using Reventure's Forecast to save money on their real estate purchases, enabling them to negotiate better prices and to know when the right time to buy is.

You can see Reventure's Forecast is historically most accurate in predicting value growth at the state, metro, and county levels, with accuracy diminishing at smaller sample sizes and populations. The table shows the historical correlation coefficients for Reventure's Price Forecast for different geographic levels going back eight years. The higher the correlation coefficient year-to-year, the more effective Reventure's score is in predicting future price growth. As you can see, Reventure's Price Forecast has proved very accurate in recent years (2023-25), especially in large geographic regions like metros and counties with populations over 100,000. The smaller the geographic regions, like ZIP codes, the lower the correlation coefficient because of increased randomness impacting value growth in smaller population areas.
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Also note: Reventure's Price Forecast is not as accurate prior to the pandemic, due to the market being undervalued back then. Reventure is currently working on an update to its forecast where it can dynamically adjust its score to reflect when home values are undervalued, or fairly valued, and thus more likely to grow at the rate of inflation or income growth.

Another company that provides widely available housing market forecasts is Zillow, often seen as the gold-standard for examining home values. Reventure ran the numbers and from April 2024 to 2025, our forecast performed 7x better than Zillow's in forecasting home value growth. We believe Reventure's superior performance to Zillow's Forecast highlights how credible and trustworthy it is.

Starting in late 2023, Reventure released a Home Price Score, ranked from 0 to 100, allowing homebuyers to see if they are in a buyer's or seller's market. As Reventure analyzed the score, we found it had predictive ability in forecasting future prices. The closer the score was to 100, the more of a seller's market; the closer to 0, the more of a buyer's market. We then converted this score to a % forecast, based on the table below.

Homebuyers and investors wanting to understand the future direction of the market should access the Reventure Forecast for their area, as they will have a better sense of where home values are heading. If forecasts are low or negative, it could be a good idea to make below-market offers and even use the data to negotiate better purchase prices. If forecasts are higher, prices are likely to keep increasing, in which case buyers would be better off purchasing today rather than waiting 6–12 months.

In the comparison below, you can see how someone using Reventure's Forecast in the middle of 2024 could have made money in real estate.