It depends on where you’re buying. In markets where inventory has piled up, mostly in the South and West, buyers have more negotiating power than at any point in years, so it’s a good time to make offers below asking. With mortgage rates above 7%, paying full list price is much harder to justify.
Check your market on the Reventure forecast map to see whether prices near you are forecast to rise or fall.
Key takeaways
- Buyers have leverage. Contract signings are at a record low, one in five listings has had a price cut, and the typical home takes 63 days to sell.
- Borrowing is expensive. The 30-year mortgage rate is 7.18%, almost a full point higher than a year ago.
- Where you buy matters more than when. Reventure forecasts national home values to slip only about 1.5% over the next year, with much larger drops in parts of the Sun Belt and gains in markets like Chicago.
- Winter is historically the cheapest season to buy, and this winter has more homes for sale than in recent years.
What is the housing market like right now? The buyer’s scorecard
The market is slow and tilted toward buyers on price, but expensive to finance. Six of the nine indicators below are favorable for buyers, and all six are about price and negotiation. The three that aren’t are about the monthly cost of owning.
| Indicator | Latest reading | For buyers |
|---|---|---|
| Buyer competition | Pending home sales index at 66.0 in September, the lowest since records began in 2001 | Favorable |
| Homes for sale | 1.18 million active listings in October, up 7.4% from a year ago | Favorable |
| Price cuts | 20.5% of listings had a price reduction in October | Favorable |
| Time on market | Median of 63 days in October | Favorable |
| List prices | Median of $415,000, down 2.2% from a year ago and the 12th straight annual decline | Favorable |
| New-home discounts | 43% of builders cut prices in October, by an average of 6%; 65% offered incentives | Favorable |
| Mortgage rates | 30-year fixed at 7.18%, up from 6.22% a year ago | Unfavorable |
| Fed policy | Rates raised in September; markets expect another hike in December | Unfavorable |
| Affordability | Typical payment of about $2,800 a month, close to 40% of the median household income | Unfavorable |
Sources: NAR via Bloomberg, Realtor.com, NAHB, Freddie Mac, Advisor Perspectives. Data as of November 11, 2026.
What does this mean for homebuyers?
This is a market that rewards negotiating, not paying list price. Few buyers are competing, sellers are waiting longer, and a growing share are cutting prices. Builders are discounting more often than at any point since 2020.
The catch is the monthly payment. Mortgage rates have eased for three straight weeks from a peak of 7.40% in mid-October, but they remain almost a full point above last year. A lower purchase price helps, and the leverage buyers have now is the best tool for getting one.
Can the typical household afford to buy a house?
Not comfortably. Reventure estimates the typical monthly payment on a home bought today at about $2,800, including taxes and insurance. Against a median household income of about $85,000, that is close to 40% of income, well above the 25% to 28% that common budgeting guidelines suggest.
Renting is cheaper for now. The typical rent is about $1,900 a month, so the typical mortgage payment runs almost 50% higher. That gap is the main reason to negotiate hard, and the main reason not to stretch.
Where is it a good time to buy a house?
It’s a good time to buy where supply is high and sales are slow, and a harder time where supply is tight. The national numbers hide a split market, so the answer changes by region.
| Market type | Where | Buyer leverage | What to do |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oversupplied | Sun Belt markets that boomed during the pandemic: Florida, Texas, Tennessee, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, and Colorado, plus Washington and Utah | High | Make offers below asking and price in the local forecast |
| Supply-constrained | Northeast and Midwest cities such as Syracuse, Hartford, Buffalo, Philadelphia, and Chicago; the New York City suburbs; San Francisco | Low | Expect competition; discounts are rare and prices are still rising |
Nationally, Reventure forecasts home values to slip about 1.5% over the next 12 months. That small average hides two very different markets.
Where are the best markets to buy a house right now?
The strongest buyer’s markets are the Sun Belt cities that boomed during the pandemic. Migration into them has slowed, builders added a large amount of new housing, and many investors who bought during the boom are now selling. Reventure’s data shows inventory in the most oversupplied states running 30% to 50% above normal, alongside a deficit in closed sales.
Prices in several of these markets have already come down:
| Market | Change in home values from peak |
|---|---|
| Austin, TX | -27% |
| Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL | -16% |
| Phoenix, AZ | about -10% |
| Denver, CO | about -10% |
| Las Vegas, NV | about -5% |
Source: Reventure App.
Individual listings show the shift even more clearly. In Florida, some homes are listed $100,000 to $150,000 below what their owners paid in 2023 or 2024. In Las Vegas, listings priced $50,000 to $100,000 under their last sale are showing up.
Where is it hardest to buy a house right now?
Buyers have the least leverage in older Northeast and Midwest cities. Syracuse, New York, has been among the fastest-appreciating markets in the country, and Hartford, Buffalo, Philadelphia, and Chicago all strongly favor sellers. Builders have added very little new housing in these regions since the last crash, so supply stays tight. Reventure forecasts Chicago prices to rise about 6% over the next year.
The same is true near the biggest job centers. San Francisco County home values are up 14.5% over the past year and Westchester County, New York, is up about 7.5%, according to Zillow data on Reventure App.
Realtor.com’s October data shows the divide in price cuts: about 21% of listings in the South and West had a reduction, against 16.8% in the Northeast.
For the full regional breakdown, see Is the Housing Market Going Down? Where Prices Will Fall in 2027.
Should I buy a house now or wait until 2027?
You don’t have to choose between the two. In a market forecast to fall, the practical middle path is to make offers now at a price that already reflects the expected decline, and walk away if the seller won’t meet it.
| Reasons to act now | Reasons to wait |
|---|---|
| Buyer competition is at a record low | Prices are forecast to fall further in many markets, by up to 10% in some ZIP codes |
| Sellers and builders are cutting prices and offering concessions | Renting is far cheaper than owning in many markets |
| Winter is historically the cheapest season to buy | Mortgage rates could rise again if the Fed keeps hiking |
| More homes to choose from than in recent winters | There’s little pressure to rush if your rent is stable |
When does it make sense to wait to buy a house?
Waiting is the stronger choice if your market is forecast to fall and owning costs much more than renting. In East Nashville, for example, one home that rented for $1,850 a month would cost about $2,700 a month to own, and Reventure forecasts the ZIP code to drop nearly 10% over the next year. (See Will Housing Prices Drop in 2027?)
When does it make sense to buy a house now?
Acting now is easier to justify if you plan to stay for many years, the payment fits your budget at today’s rate, and you can negotiate a price below what the forecast implies. A buyer who gets 10% off in a market expected to fall 10% has already absorbed the decline.
Be cautious about one common piece of advice: buying now and counting on refinancing later. Rates have eased recently, but the Fed raised its benchmark rate in September and markets expect another increase in December. A payment that only works after a refinance is a risk.
Should I wait for the housing market to crash before buying?
Not if you’re waiting for a national one. Reventure’s forecast calls for national home values to fall only about 1.5% over the next year. Many owners hold mortgages at 3% to 4% and have little reason to sell, which keeps supply from surging nationwide. The large declines are local. If your market isn’t one of them, waiting a year may not get you a lower price, and in markets like Chicago it’s forecast to cost more.
What is the best time of year to buy a house?
Winter, and January in particular. Prices are lowest, homes sit longest, and the fewest buyers are competing.
A LendingTree analysis of about 24 million home sales from 2015 through 2024 found that January had the lowest price per square foot of any month, about 8% below May, the most expensive month. On a 1,500-square-foot home, that gap came to roughly $23,400. Homes listed in January also took a median of 75 days to sell, the slowest pace of the year (LendingTree).
The usual trade-off is selection: fewer homes are listed in winter. That trade-off is smaller this year. Active listings reached 1.18 million in October, up 7.4% from a year earlier, and sellers are keeping homes on the market instead of pulling them.
So the months ahead, November through February, combine the seasonal discount with weaker buyer competition than usual. If you’re ready to buy, this is the part of the calendar that has historically favored buyers most.
Is buying a house a good investment right now?
It depends on the price you pay relative to local rents, and on how long you plan to stay. In an overvalued market that’s forecast to fall, a home bought at list price is a weak short-term investment. In an undervalued or supply-constrained market, the case is stronger.
Three checks help answer the question for your market:
- Compare the cost of owning to renting. If owning a home costs about the same as renting it, as in Westchester County, the price is supported. If owning costs 50% more, as in East Nashville, the price is more likely to fall.
- Check whether the market is overvalued. Reventure App shows how local prices compare to their long-term norms against both incomes and rents. Prices far above those norms tend to correct.
- Match the forecast to your time horizon. A forecast decline matters much more if you might sell in two years than if you plan to stay for ten.
A home is also a place to live, not only an investment. But the price you pay sets your return, which is why negotiating in today’s market matters so much.
You can check out market forecasts on the Reventure App:
Is now a good time to buy a rental property?
In most markets, the numbers are hard to justify right now. The math is harder for investors than for people buying a home to live in. Reventure estimates the typical cap rate on a single-family rental, its net income divided by its price, at about 4.8%. The 10-year Treasury yields about 4.9% (The Mortgage Reports), with none of the work or risk of owning a rental.
Counting on appreciation to close that gap is risky where prices are high relative to rents and incomes. In those markets, a cautious model assumes flat or falling values for the first few years. Good deals exist, but they come from buying well below a home’s last sale price, not from market-wide appreciation.
Long-term demand also differs by market. Austin records about twice as many births as deaths, while Florida now has more deaths than births, according to Reventure’s demographic data. Markets with younger populations have a larger base of future buyers.
Am I ready to buy a house?
Market conditions only matter if your own finances are ready. A good market doesn’t make a purchase right for someone who would be stretched by the payment.
You’re likely ready if you can check most of these:
- You plan to stay in the home for at least several years
- The monthly payment, including taxes and insurance, fits your budget at today’s mortgage rate, ideally at or below about 25% to 28% of your gross income
- You’ll still have emergency savings after the down payment and closing costs
- You’ve compared quotes from more than one lender and have a pre-approval
- You know whether prices in your target area are forecast to rise or fall
- You’ve compared the cost of owning with the cost of renting a similar home nearby
If several of these are unchecked, waiting isn’t missing out. With inventory rising and demand weak, buyers in most markets aren’t racing against anyone.
How long do you need to stay in a home to break even?
It depends on the gap between owning and renting in your market. Where owning costs about the same as renting, a few years can be enough. Where it costs far more, you need appreciation to make up the difference, and that takes longer.
California is the extreme case. A home that rents for $4,000 a month there can cost around $9,000 a month to own. At that gap, it could take 15 years for buying to come out ahead. In markets where prices have already fallen, such as parts of Florida, the break-even point comes sooner.
This article is general information, not personal financial advice.
How do you negotiate a lower price on a house?
In oversupplied markets, the list price is a starting point. These steps make the most of the leverage buyers have:
- Look for sellers who need to sell. Two signals matter most: the home has been listed for six months or more, and it has had more than one price cut. The median home sells in 63 days, so a listing that has sat for six months is well outside the norm. Sellers of fresh listings rarely negotiate much.
- Work out your own number first. Base it on comparable sales, the home’s price history, the local forecast, and the monthly payment you’re comfortable with. If your ZIP code is forecast to fall, an offer at today’s price means absorbing that decline yourself.
- Build credibility before you make an offer. See the home in person and have your pre-approval or proof of funds ready. A low offer is taken more seriously from a buyer who can clearly close.
- Ask before you offer low. Tell the listing agent your offer will be well below the list price and ask whether the seller wants to see it. A yes tells you the seller is motivated. A no saves everyone time.
- Be willing to walk away. If the counteroffer is too high, let it sit. Sellers of stale listings often come back.
- Ask for concessions as well as a lower price. Closing-cost credits and mortgage rate buydowns reduce your costs even when the seller holds firm on price.
- Look at new construction. 43% of builders cut prices in October, by an average of 6%, and 65% offered sales incentives.
How much below asking price can you offer on a house?
On listings that have sat for months with a motivated seller, offers well below the list price can succeed. Reventure founder Nick Gerli used this approach on a home he bought in Atlanta earlier this year. The listing had already been cut well below its last sale price, a sign the seller wanted out.
| Step | Price |
|---|---|
| Sold as a new build, 2021 | about $440,000 |
| Resold, 2023 | about $490,000 |
| Reduced list price | $415,000 |
| First offer | $315,000 |
| Seller’s counteroffer (declined) | $400,000 |
| Seller’s later counteroffer | $360,000 |
| Final price | $330,000 |
The final price was about 20% below the reduced list price and roughly $160,000 below the 2023 sale. He didn’t answer the first counteroffer with a higher number. He waited, the seller came back $40,000 lower, and they settled at $330,000.
Results like this aren’t typical, and they aren’t available in every market. But in areas with heavy supply and motivated sellers, they show how much room there can be between a list price and a closing price.
Reventure’s listing analyzer does this math for a specific home. Paste in a Zillow or Redfin link and it returns an offer range based on comparable sales, the home’s price history, and the local forecast. For one East Nashville home listed at $368,000, it suggested offering between $315,000 and $341,000.
Frequently asked questions
Is now a good time to buy a house?
In markets with high inventory, yes, if you negotiate. Buyer competition is at a record low and one in five listings has had a price cut. In tight markets near major job centers, prices are still rising and discounts are rare.
Should I buy a house now or wait until 2027?
If your market is forecast to fall and renting is much cheaper than owning, waiting is reasonable. Otherwise, making offers now at a price that reflects the forecast can capture today’s leverage without overpaying.
What is the best month to buy a house?
January. A LendingTree study of about 24 million sales found January had the lowest price per square foot of any month, about 8% below May.
Is it a buyer’s market right now?
In much of the South and West, yes: inventory is well above normal and sales are slow. In much of the Northeast and Midwest, and in San Francisco, sellers still have the advantage.
Will home prices drop in 2027?
In many markets, yes, though the national decline Reventure forecasts is only about 1.5%. Declines of up to 10% are forecast in the most oversupplied ZIP codes, while supply-constrained metros are expected to keep rising.
Will mortgage rates go down in 2027?
Nobody knows. The 30-year rate has eased to 7.18% from 7.40% in mid-October, but the Fed raised rates in September and markets expect another hike in December. It’s safer to budget for today’s rate than to count on a lower one.
Is buying a house a good investment?
It depends on the price relative to local rents and how long you stay. Homes bought well below asking in a falling market, or in markets where rents support prices, are better positioned than homes bought at list price in overvalued areas.
Can the average American afford to buy a house right now?
Not comfortably. Reventure estimates the typical monthly payment at about $2,800 including taxes and insurance, close to 40% of the median household income. Common budgeting guidelines suggest 25% to 28%.
How long do I need to stay in a house for buying to beat renting?
It depends on how much more owning costs than renting where you live. Where the two are close, a few years can be enough. In the most expensive markets, where owning can cost more than twice as much as renting, it could take 15 years.
How do I know if a seller will negotiate?
Look for homes that have been listed for six months or more and have had more than one price cut. You or your agent can also ask the listing agent whether the seller would consider an offer well below the list price before you submit one.
Sources
- Bloomberg: US pending home sales fall to record low
- Realtor.com October 2026 Housing Report
- NAHB: Builder sentiment falls on rising rates (October 2026)
- Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, November 5, 2026
- Advisor Perspectives: Fed rate decision, October 28, 2026
- The Mortgage Reports: 10-year Treasury yield, November 10, 2026
- LendingTree: January is the cheapest month to buy a home
- Reventure App and analysis by founder Nick Gerli: price forecasts, payment, rent, income, and cap rate estimates, price changes by market, demographic data, inventory surplus and sales deficit data, home value growth (Zillow data), and listing analysis
